The People vs. Inflation: A Political Problem (Not an Economic One)

In the News, Insights

What will happen if our politicians pursue an economic “hard landing” that weakens employment for below-median households? What if Fed rate hikes crater consumption by further reducing their real income and wealth? If these things happen, we will achieve a Friedman-esque victory against inflation … but an ultimately empty victory for Main Street. At its heart, our current inflation is a political problem. It is going to require a political solution.

This Is Not the Matrix and You Are Not “The One”

In the News, Insights

For the past decade, many investors have been living in the Matrix. Buoyed by extensive quantitative easing and overseas production, their portfolios have ballooned. They believe in their illusory world, a place they have the ability to grow wealth unimpeded and without consequence. Unfortunately for them, this is the real world—and inflation is the blue pill.

The Coming Stagflation

In the News, Insights

We are quick to criticize other countries’ regulatory and fiscal missteps, but it would be foolish to imagine the US Federal Reserve and our other institutions are not similarly capable of self-harm. It could be out of ignorance, hubris, or politics. Regardless, the coming stagflation is cause for concern in the US.

Why I’m Active in China

In the News, Insights

Beijing’s consumer tech crackdown last year led some global investors to hypothesize that China is punishing success. But the likely real reason is simpler: Beijing feels uncomfortable with the power a few firms harness through their unbridled access to personal data. Western regulators are grappling with similar concerns.

China Tech: Too Big to Succeed

In the News, Insights

Beijing’s consumer tech crackdown last year led some global investors to hypothesize that China is punishing success. But the likely real reason is simpler: Beijing feels uncomfortable with the power a few firms harness through their unbridled access to personal data. Western regulators are grappling with similar concerns.

Why I’m Not Afraid for Taiwan

In the News, Insights

This piece was originally penned to address concerns over how the invasion of Ukraine might exacerbate a potential conflict between China and Taiwan. For those asking my opinion, I predict China will deescalate with Taiwan in the coming years because it simply has too much to lose by invading—and too much to gain through patience.