Q2 2022 Asset Class Update
Stagflation fear sent stocks into a bear market in Q2, while bonds tanked as the Fed debated a full-point rate hike after June’s jarring 9.1% rise in US CPI. How might the fight against inflation unfold in the second half?
The People vs. Inflation: A Political Problem (Not an Economic One)
What will happen if our politicians pursue an economic “hard landing” that weakens employment for below-median households? What if Fed rate hikes crater consumption by further reducing their real income and wealth? If these things happen, we will achieve a Friedman-esque victory against inflation … but an ultimately empty victory for Main Street. At its heart, our current inflation is a political problem. It is going to require a political solution.
Untangling Fear and Risk: An Investment Survival Skill
The so-called “fear premium”—the alpha opportunity created by fear-driven markets—is well-studied and understood. And yet, few investors have the discipline to avoid the behavioral mistakes caused by fear. Those who do will not only survive, but thrive.
This Is Not the Matrix and You Are Not “The One”
For the past decade, many investors have been living in the Matrix. Buoyed by extensive quantitative easing and overseas production, their portfolios have ballooned. They believe in their illusory world, a place they have the ability to grow wealth unimpeded and without consequence. Unfortunately for them, this is the real world—and inflation is the blue pill.
The Coming Stagflation
We are quick to criticize other countries’ regulatory and fiscal missteps, but it would be foolish to imagine the US Federal Reserve and our other institutions are not similarly capable of self-harm. It could be out of ignorance, hubris, or politics. Regardless, the coming stagflation is cause for concern in the US.
China and the US: Same People, Same Problems, Different Methods
Dr. Jason Hsu looks at a unique and recent regulatory push in China (one still not on Western radars) that is an illustration of how US and Chinese regulators are trying to tackle the same problems…but with very different toolkits.
Why I’m Active in China
Beijing’s consumer tech crackdown last year led some global investors to hypothesize that China is punishing success. But the likely real reason is simpler: Beijing feels uncomfortable with the power a few firms harness through their unbridled access to personal data. Western regulators are grappling with similar concerns.
Q1 2022 Asset Class Update
March marked ‘lift-off’ for the Fed, which commenced tightening, hiking rates a quarter-point. With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine shocking energy markets and COVID shutting down Shanghai, is a soft landing at risk?
China Tech: Too Big to Succeed
Beijing’s consumer tech crackdown last year led some global investors to hypothesize that China is punishing success. But the likely real reason is simpler: Beijing feels uncomfortable with the power a few firms harness through their unbridled access to personal data. Western regulators are grappling with similar concerns.
Why I’m Not Afraid for Taiwan
This piece was originally penned to address concerns over how the invasion of Ukraine might exacerbate a potential conflict between China and Taiwan. For those asking my opinion, I predict China will deescalate with Taiwan in the coming years because it simply has too much to lose by invading—and too much to gain through patience.