Q3 2022 Asset Class Update

In our latest Quarterly Asset Class Update, we break down global markets by the numbers, offering thoughts as to where markets could be headed as 2022 heads into the home stretch.

Read More

When Smart Beta Meets Machine Learning and Portfolio Optimization

Smart beta products using common factors like value, low volatility, quality, and small cap experienced an underwhelming performance from 2005–2022. On average, long-only factor portfolios built from a wider set of global factors identified in the finance literature generated significantly positive excess returns across countries, suggesting diversifying across many factors is more prudent than selecting a handful that have performed the best.

Read More

You Are Already a China Investor

Many investors say they “don’t invest in China” at all – despite having tens or even hundreds of millions invested in an emerging markets portfolio. These investors would be well-advised to understand the extent to which their EM portfolio is, in fact, invested in China.

Read More

7 Predictions for a Stagflation Economy

Jason is making some predictions…and fully acknowledging that all of them could be wrong. There are only two sustainable options in investing: lose money fast, or compound returns slowly. Diversification remains the only free lunch in investing, and it has always been (and is likely to remain) the best way to successfully weather turbulent markets.

Read More

Q2 2022 Asset Class Update

Stagflation fear sent stocks into a bear market in Q2, while bonds tanked as the Fed debated a full-point rate hike after June’s jarring 9.1% rise in US CPI. How might the fight against inflation unfold in the second half?

Read More

The People vs. Inflation: A Political Problem (Not an Economic One)

What will happen if our politicians pursue an economic “hard landing” that weakens employment for below-median households? What if Fed rate hikes crater consumption by further reducing their real income and wealth? If these things happen, we will achieve a Friedman-esque victory against inflation … but an ultimately empty victory for Main Street. At its heart, our current inflation is a political problem. It is going to require a political solution.

Read More

This Is Not the Matrix and You Are Not “The One”

For the past decade, many investors have been living in the Matrix. Buoyed by extensive quantitative easing and overseas production, their portfolios have ballooned. They believe in their illusory world, a place they have the ability to grow wealth unimpeded and without consequence. Unfortunately for them, this is the real world—and inflation is the blue pill.

Read More

The Coming Stagflation

We are quick to criticize other countries’ regulatory and fiscal missteps, but it would be foolish to imagine the US Federal Reserve and our other institutions are not similarly capable of self-harm. It could be out of ignorance, hubris, or politics. Regardless, the coming stagflation is cause for concern in the US.

Read More

Why I’m Active in China

Beijing’s consumer tech crackdown last year led some global investors to hypothesize that China is punishing success. But the likely real reason is simpler: Beijing feels uncomfortable with the power a few firms harness through their unbridled access to personal data. Western regulators are grappling with similar concerns.

Read More

Q1 2022 Asset Class Update

March marked ‘lift-off’ for the Fed, which commenced tightening, hiking rates a quarter-point. With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine shocking energy markets and COVID shutting down Shanghai, is a soft landing at risk?

Read More

China Tech: Too Big to Succeed

Beijing’s consumer tech crackdown last year led some global investors to hypothesize that China is punishing success. But the likely real reason is simpler: Beijing feels uncomfortable with the power a few firms harness through their unbridled access to personal data. Western regulators are grappling with similar concerns.

Read More

Why I’m Not Afraid for Taiwan

This piece was originally penned to address concerns over how the invasion of Ukraine might exacerbate a potential conflict between China and Taiwan. For those asking my opinion, I predict China will deescalate with Taiwan in the coming years because it simply has too much to lose by invading—and too much to gain through patience.

Read More

Q4 2021 Asset Class Update

Red-hot inflation going into 2022 has pulled forward the Fed’s timetable for tightening, just as a surge in Omicron cases threatens to hit growth. How will markets react to rate hikes in the year ahead?

Read More